U.S. health spending projected to exceed $7T in 2031

June 14, 2023


National health expenditures will surpass $7 trillion and consume nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy in 2031, according to projections the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ Office of the Actuary published Wednesday.

Healthcare spending will rise by an average of 5.4% a year from 2022 through 2031, when it will reach $7.17 trillion, or 19.6% of gross domestic product. “Health spending over the course of the next 10 years is expected to grow more rapidly, on average, than the overall economy,” CMS actuaries wrote in the journal Health Affairs.

The Office of the Actuary, which is independent from CMS leadership, projects that the government, businesses and households spent $4.44 trillion on healthcare in 2022—4.3% more than the prior year—or 17.4% of GDP. Healthcare spending grew more slowly than the economy last year, according to the report. Healthcare expenditures grew 2.7% in 2021, 10.3% in 2020 and 4.2% in 2019, the year before the pandemic began. The CMS actuaries will issue their final tally of national health spending for 2022 near the end of this year.

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